utah housing market predictions 2022

The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. Homes on the market: 11,172. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. Inventory levels have skyrocketed, with the average number of homes on the market up a remarkable 248% from the same period in 2021. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. Despite the expensive prices, the inventory cannot keep up with the growth pace. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Park City Data Privacy . As of November, that figure was down to $569,000 14% lower than the May peak but still 4% higher than in November of 2021. Home > Blog > Market News & Trends > Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978," wrote James Wood in the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. Meanwhile, new home construction. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. Property prices still remain high. As a result, average days on market have increased, and sellers are becoming more open to negotiation. Eskic has a more bearish outlook. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. Its more likely that as mortgage rates continue to decline, the market will find a solid floor in the summer and prices will resume their upward trend as we move into the fall. Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. Homes are under construction in South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Windermere Living This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. They. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. Utah house prices are significantly higher than the national average, and local salaries are not keeping up with the price growth and inflation. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. In Utah, because of its continued strong job economy, experts predict the states housing market to experience some turbulence in 2023 but come out strong next year. The good news for buyers who are prepared to take on high mortgage rates is that they no longer face the fierce competition of early 2022. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Gone are the days of brutal competition. Even during the 2008 Recession, Utah felt the pain but, comparatively speaking, suffered a less deep economic hit. Get your free online home valuation in only 2 minutes! Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. How far will they fall? NerdWallet reports that 2022 will see a low end of 3,4% according to Fannie Mae and will reach 4% by the end of the year as predicted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Salt Lake City is the capital and most populous city of Utah, with a population of 200,133, Salt Lake City housing market is somewhat competitive, with listed properties receiving three offers per listing and 24.5% of them selling above the asking price. In addition, while year-on-year figures still show growth, monthly data is beginning to tell a different story of dropping prices, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of 2022 and into 2023. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. In his report for Utah, Wood wrote its very unlikely that the recent price run-up represents a housing bubble, though he added, We dont know if a bubble exists until after it bursts. He cited Alan Greenspan, an economist and past chairman of the Federal Reserve, who defined a housing bubble as a prolonged period of housing price declines. The migration during the Pandemic contributed to the increased demand in the Utah housing market and an increase in housing prices. The demand is causing local buyers to cut corners by foregoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies just to beat the competition. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. Will it pop or deflate?, disagree over how much home prices will decline, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. They can step back and wait for the dust to settle., As a result, Wood predicted price declines that have been tumbling since May will stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual median sales price for 2023 will likely be within a few percentage points one way or another of 2022., Worst case scenario, Wood added, prices down about 5%; best case scenario, prices equal to 2022.. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. Compass announced a third round of layoffs on Thursday, according to The Real Deal. Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. The rental market is not affordable and is experiencing high rental prices. But what about the increase in interest rates? We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. Salt Lake Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2032: August 2032: Open: 666286: Min: 635950: If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. These factors positioned Utah in the top spot on the Bankrate Housing Heat Index. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. Significantly higher inventory levels gave buyers a lot more options than they have become accustomed to. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. 2022's housing market follows Utah's hottest housing year ever . Areas of Utah State are also referred to as Northern Utah, SLC, Wasatch Range, and Park City. Love hunting, fishing, or anything outdoors? Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. Statewide, housing . While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. While 2021 was the year of the shocking home price, 2022 was the year of the reset, said Steve Perry, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Doing read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. Some, however, say the market needs this correction to reach a more healthy equilibrium between sellers and buyers as well as healthier affordability. Agents receive this question at least 10 to 15 times per week. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. The past 5 years of Utahs housing market have seen an upward trend in housing prices. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. of $518,200. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. The Typical U.S. Home Changes Hands Every 12 Years, Down From 2020 Peak, Market Recovery Hampered by High Housing Costs, Low Supply in January, Housing Market Update: Sale Prices Flatten, Demand for Mortgages Falls as Rates Climb, Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade, Redfin Predicts a More Balanced Housing Market in 2022, Housing-Market Mayhem: U.S. Home Sales Likely to Hit Record High of $2.5 Trillion In 2021, REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. How to Find Multi Family Homes for Sale in 2020. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Several people claim that hedge funds, investors, and cash buyers are to blame for this lopsidedness. I have moved the needle accordingly. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. Median home price for Salt Lake residents over the last year was $564,062. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. For this reason, despite the high median property price, investors in rental properties are most likely to enjoy very good returns. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. READ REDFIN'S FAIR HOUSING POLICY. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. I dont think thats happened yet.. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. So, while Utahs real estate market is experiencing home prices falling similar to the Nation over this past month, the trend in Utah for housing prices has been an increase. Please note that while we have included updated and accurate Airbnb data from Mashvisor, each city and county have different rules and regulations about short-term rentals. He is married with 7 children. It is a valid and fundamental question as our homes are typically the largest and most expensive asset we own. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. Families flourish in Utah. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. The party was over. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. All Rights Reserved. A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. First-time homebuyers will need to be successful in the 2022 housing market if we are going to see the homeownership rate begin to climb again. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. increase. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. 2.1 months of housing inventory. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. -0.63% home value decrease month over month. Below is the latest Utah housing market trends analysis. We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. Some investors flip houses, others wholesale them. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. Other Regional Data. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. How is the real estate market in Utah? Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. Like many other housing markets in the United States, the Utah housing market follows seasonal trends. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. Utah Housing Market Trends Q4 2022 According to the report by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, the Utah real estate market has experienced a slowdown in the pace of job growth, with the state adding 43,300 jobs over the past 12 months at an annual rate of 2.6%. Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. Do not sell or share my personal information rates hit and they were left holding the,! 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